Economic Regime Patterns

Historical output from the supplied two-state Gaussian HMM package.

Regime artifact unavailable. These are full-sample smoothed probabilities and use information from later dates. They are not real-time probabilities, causal regime labels, or policy signals.

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Model limits

The supplied two-state model labels higher and lower inflation patterns. It does not separate supply shocks, demand pressure, or stagflation causes. Probabilities are smoothed over the full sample, so this is an ex-post descriptive diagnostic.

Historical smoothed state probabilities

0 monthly records

Month	Most likely pattern	Posterior probability

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India Macro Intelligence

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